Introduction
On March 11, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) published the Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community, which outlines the most significant global security threats facing the United States. The report comprehensively analyzes critical threats, including state actors, transnational issues, shared domains, and non-state actor issues. This article briefly summarizes its findings.
State Actors
China
China aspires to surpass the United States in comprehensive national power and influence worldwide. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been attempting to undermine U.S. influence and drive a wedge between Washington and its partners. Despite facing various domestic challenges, China's leadership is willing to take measures to reduce tension with the U.S. when it benefits Beijing and protects its core interests.
In 2024, following Taiwan's presidential and legislative election, Beijing continued to apply military and economic pressure while promoting long-term cross-Strait economic and social integration to induce Taiwan towards unification.
Russia
Russia's aggressive actions in Ukraine have caused significant damage at home and abroad, but it remains a resilient and capable adversary. Despite the damage inflicted by its large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia is implementing policies to mitigate these costs and leverage foreign relationships to minimize sanctions-related damage and rebuild its credibility as a great power.
Iran
Iran continues to pose threats to U.S. interests, allies, and regional stability. Tehran aims to leverage its recent military successes through its empowered threat network, diplomatic gains, expanded nuclear program, and military sales to advance its ambitions.
North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un remains committed to expanding the country's nuclear and conventional military capabilities. These capabilities pose threats to the United States and its allies and enable North Korea to conduct periodic aggressive actions as it seeks to reshape the regional security environment in its favor.
Transnational Issues
Disruptive Technology
New technologies, particularly in AI and biotechnology, are being developed and increasing at a pace that challenges companies and governments to shape norms regarding civil liberties, privacy, and ethics.
Digital Authoritarianism and Transnational Repression
Foreign states are advancing digital and physical means to repress individual critics and diaspora communities abroad to limit their influence over the domestic public.
Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
The expansion of nuclear weapons stockpiles and their delivery systems, coupled with increasing regional conflicts involving nuclear weapons states, pose a significant challenge to global efforts to prevent the spread and use of nuclear weapons.
Shared Domains
Environmental Change and Extreme Weather
The risks to U.S. national security interests are increasing as the physical effects of climate and environmental change intersect with geopolitical tension and vulnerabilities of some global systems.
Health Security
National health system shortfalls, public mistrust and medical misinformation, and eroding global health governance impede the capacity of countries to respond to health threats.
Migration
Conflict, violence, political instability, poor economic conditions, and natural disasters continue to displace growing numbers of people within their national borders and internationally.
Non-State Actor Issues
Transnational Organized Crime
Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) threaten U.S. and allied public health systems, exploit the international financial system, and degrade the safety and security of the United States and partner nations.
Global Terrorism
U.S. persons and interests at home and abroad face an ideologically diverse threat from terrorism. This threat is most likely to manifest in small cells or individuals inspired by foreign terrorist organizations and violent extremist ideologies to conduct attacks.
Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs)
PMSCs are a growing presence in the international environment, and a handful of these firms associated with U.S. rivals, such as Russia, threaten global security in many countries and regions.
Conclusion
The Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community provides a comprehensive understanding of the most pressing national security issues the United States faces. It offers policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel the nuanced, independent, and objective intelligence they need to protect American lives and America's interests anywhere in the world.
