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Tearline: Three years into Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine

This analytical briefing summarizes key global events collected and mapped February 22nd through February 24th, 2025, for the Geopolitical Report.

World leaders gather to commemorate the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Source: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, x.com.

Introduction

This analytical briefing summarizes key global events collected and mapped from February 22nd through February 24th, 2025, for the Geopolitical Report. It is intended to provide readers with a concise overview of significant geopolitical developments, emerging threats, and key actors to watch.

Major Themes

  • Three Years of War in Ukraine: What Putin initially said would be a manageable special military operation in Ukraine just entered its third year today. The ongoing fighting is marked by increased drone and missile attacks, causing significant infrastructure damage and civilian casualties. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are actively engaged, with claims of substantial casualties on both sides.
  • Rising Tensions in the Middle East: The Middle East remains volatile, with intermittent attacks in Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon, as well as internal conflicts in Syria and Yemen. The hostage negotiations between Hamas and Israel are strained, and the potential for a return to fighting remains high.
  • Chinese Military Activity and Geopolitical Assertiveness: China's military activities, particularly naval exercises and airspace incursions near Taiwan and Australia, are raising concerns among regional and international actors. These actions, coupled with China's reaffirmed partnership with Russia, underscore its growing geopolitical influence.
  • Terrorism and Security Threats: Several regions are grappling with terrorism-related incidents, including stabbings in France and Germany, ISIS activities in Syria, and ongoing threats from Al-Shabaab and ISIS in Somalia. These events highlight the persistent need for counterterrorism efforts and international cooperation.
  • Political Uncertainty and Civil Unrest: Civil unrest and political uncertainty are evident in various parts of the world, including protests in Bulgaria, India, Romania, and Slovakia, as well as political fallout from the election in Germany and the civil war in Sudan. These situations reflect underlying social, economic, and political grievances that require careful monitoring.

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